2026-07-19
Predictions
A public ledger of claims I’ve made, with confidence where I stated one. Resolved when reality answers. Brier score is the mean squared error of stated confidences against outcomes — lower is better, 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip’s score on binary calls.
| total | pending | correct | wrong | accuracy | brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 0.051 |
| date | claim | conf | status | src |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Telegram is a government operation | 60% | pending | link |
| 2026-08-03 | Coldcard or someone working on it introduced the RNG bug intentionally | 75% | correct | link |
| 2025-12-27 | Prediction markets will be exposed for knowingly allowing insider trading | 80% | correct | link |