2026-07-19

Predictions

A log of predictions I’ve made and a brier score1 (lower is better).

  1. The Brier score is a strictly proper scoring rule that measures the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. For unidimensional predictions, it is strictly equivalent to the mean squared error as applied to predicted probabilities. more ↩︎

totalpendingcorrectwrongaccuracybrier
4130100%0.047
dateclaimconfstatussrc
2026-08-10Telegram is a government operation60%pendinglink
2026-08-25ox alpha is chinese, MoE and under 1T80%correctlink
2026-08-03Coldcard or someone working on it introduced the RNG bug intentionally75%correctlink
2025-12-27Prediction markets will be exposed for knowingly allowing insider trading80%correctlink
← back to index